Bangladesh’s

As authoritarian rule strengthens across the world, Bangladesh’s February 2026 election has become a critical test of whether democracy can still be restored once it has been dismantled. After 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s rule, marked by rigged elections, politicised courts, media control and mass surveillance, a student-led uprising in 2024 brought her government down. This was not a coup or foreign-backed change—it was a grassroots movement that broke years of public fear and silence.

Now, under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the February 12 election will decide whether this new hope can be turned into lasting democratic institutions—or whether Bangladesh will follow the path of failed transitions seen in countries like Venezuela or Belarus, where authoritarianism eventually returned.

If Bangladesh succeeds, it could inspire democratic movements across Asia and beyond. If it fails, it may confirm a harsh reality of our time: authoritarian systems are easier to build than to dismantle.

For nearly two decades, Bangladesh lived under a hollow democracy. Elections were held, but results were largely decided in advance through ballot manipulation, arrests of opposition leaders, and pressure on the media. The real strength of the system was not force alone—it was public apathy. Many citizens believed voting was meaningless and protesting was dangerous. Resistance felt futile.

The fall of Hasina broke that belief.

The movement began with student protests against job quotas in July 2024, but quickly spread as workers, families, and communities joined in. Unlike elite-led transitions seen in places like Sudan or Myanmar, this was a bottom-up uprising. When security forces responded with violence, killing hundreds, public anger only grew stronger. Fear faded as people realised they were not alone—similar to the mass awakening that toppled dictators in Tunisia during the Arab Spring.

What Bangladeshis reclaimed was more than political rights—it was dignity. Citizens demanded respect, accountability, and fair representation. Today, voter registration is rising, political rallies are growing, and public debate is active both online and in daily life. This moment resembles other powerful civic movements, such as Hong Kong’s 2019 protests or Iran’s women-led uprising in 2022, where collective courage broke years of enforced silence.

But history also warns that such moments can disappear quickly. In both Hong Kong and Iran, authorities moved fast to regain control. Without strong institutions, hope can quickly turn into disappointment.

Democratic change depends not only on laws and institutions, but also on public psychology. Authoritarian systems survive by isolating people and making resistance feel lonely and dangerous. Bangladesh’s breakthrough came when mass participation shattered that illusion.

Now, the interim government faces an enormous challenge—often described as a “mission impossible.” Yunus has promised reforms to the Election Commission, judicial independence, and media freedom. But serious risks remain: security forces that were involved in the 2024 crackdown, political divisions over reforms and party inclusion, rising mob violence, and economic pressure could all undermine the election’s credibility.

Other countries offer lessons. Tunisia’s 2011 revolution initially succeeded through inclusive reforms but later collapsed due to economic hardship and elite control. Egypt’s transition, by contrast, failed when reforms stalled and military power returned. Bangladesh must avoid both outcomes by ensuring clean voter lists, neutral policing, and inclusive political dialogue. If done right, it could set an example for countries like Pakistan or Thailand, where election manipulation remains common.

At a time when democracy is declining worldwide, Bangladesh’s experience matters far beyond its borders. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, democratic standards have declined or stagnated in 130 out of 167 countries in 2024. Leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Narendra Modi in India have refined systems that hold elections but weaken real competition. Against this backdrop, Bangladesh stands out as rare proof that mass civic action can remove entrenched rulers—if reforms move fast enough.

For the United States and Europe, supporting Bangladesh’s transition fits their broader Indo-Pacific strategy. China’s Belt and Road investments have increased Bangladesh’s debt, while India—concerned about regional stability—previously supported Hasina and has taken a cautious stance since her fall. A successful democratic transition would strengthen regional partnerships. Failure, however, could encourage authoritarian leaders elsewhere to simply wait until public resistance fades.

Western policymakers should focus on practical support: election monitoring, targeted sanctions against corrupt actors, and economic assistance to stabilise the transition. India and China also have a stake in stability, as peace supports trade, though their approaches differ. In the end, real stability will come only through free and fair elections, where results are accepted and power is transferred peacefully.

The 2026 election is not just another vote—it is a test of whether Bangladesh can secure its democratic gains. Public faith has returned, but it depends on credible systems: an independent Election Commission, neutral security forces, fair courts, and a free press. Any sign of rigging or violence could destroy trust and open the door to populism or military intervention.

To succeed, Yunus’s government must move quickly, involve civil society, and resist elite control. The world should pay attention—not because Bangladesh is weak, but because its journey tests whether democracy can still survive in the 21st century. If it succeeds, it will send a powerful message that change is possible. If it fails, the lesson for authoritarians will be clear: endure the protests, and power will eventually return.